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Winters of discontent

Casey J. Wichman

Journal of Public Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105637article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Do short-run weather shocks affect migration? I estimate how snow influences county-level migration in the Great Lakes region since 1970. I isolate responses to snow by comparing its effect on net migration across regions exposed to lake-effect snow (LES)—heavy snow generated downwind of the Great Lakes. Higher-than-average snowfall in lake-effect regions leads to net population loss the following year. This effect is driven by reductions in in-migrants, dissipates after 1–2 years, and is strongest for young and middle-aged populations. Snow has virtually no effect on migration in non-lake-effect regions, suggesting that baseline exposure interacts with anomalous weather events. • Above-normal snowfall reduces net migration in lake-effect snow counties in the Great Lakes region but not in other counties. • The migration response to snow in lake-effect counties is driven by reductions in in-migration. • Snow effects are largest for young and middle-aged adults and dissipate within one to two years.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105637

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@article{casey2026,
  title        = {{Winters of discontent}},
  author       = {Casey J. Wichman},
  journal      = {Journal of Public Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105637},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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