ASYMPTOTIC PROPERTIES OF THE GAUGE AND POWER OF STEP-INDICATOR SATURATION

Bent Nielsen & Matthias Qian

Econometric Theory2025https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266466625100145article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.37

Abstract

Detecting multiple structural breaks at unknown dates is a central challenge in time-series econometrics. Step-indicator saturation (SIS) addresses this challenge during model selection, and we develop its asymptotic theory for tuning parameter choice. We study its frequency gauge—the false detection rate—and show it is consistent and asymptotically normal. Simulations suggest that a smaller gauge minimizes bias in post-selection regression estimates. For the small gauge situation, we develop a complementary Poisson theory. We compare the local power of SIS to detect shifts with that of Andrews’ break test. We find that SIS excels when breaks are near the sample end or closely spaced. An application to U.K. labor productivity reveals a growth slowdown after the 2008 financial crisis.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266466625100145

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@article{bent2025,
  title        = {{ASYMPTOTIC PROPERTIES OF THE GAUGE AND POWER OF STEP-INDICATOR SATURATION}},
  author       = {Bent Nielsen & Matthias Qian},
  journal      = {Econometric Theory},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266466625100145},
}

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0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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